In the wake of the Arab Spring, President Obama felt he had to reboot US policy towards the so-called Israel/Palestine peace process. No longer could he rely on dictators to keep the peace with Israel.
Part of the problem, of course, was that this dynamic involves not only the United States and the Arab world, but also Israel.
And Bibi Netanyahu, in what has to be viewed as a breathtakingly effective ambush, has just declared checkmate on President Obama's new initiative.
Matthew Yglesias spells it out as others (self included) have been hinting:
So in sum what we saw this week is that the President of the United States made it clear that he disagrees with the regional policy of the Israeli government, but despite that disagreement intends to keep Israel as the number one recipient of US foreign aid and that he also intends to put America’s diplomatic clout at Israel’s disposal in the coming controversy over a Palestinian declaration of statehood. Meanwhile, despite Obama’s lack of desire to shift US policy, he’s subject to opportunistic political attacks from members of the opposition party, attacks which are echoed rather than rebutted by members of his own political coalition. Meanwhile, despite an overhyped trend toward younger Jewish American adopting more sympathetic views toward Palestinians, the fact of the matter is that the Palestinian cause is deeply and increasingly unpopular in the United States:
Yes. Obama offers the Palestinians nothing new, scolds them and makes demands for them, and winds up being wrongfooted by Israel and its lobby in the United States.
Including by Democrats.
The truth is brutal: The President of the United States does not have the power or authority to determine our foreign policy towards the Middle East. He can bomb Libya, sure. But he can't even suggest in public the basis for negotiations behind closed doors over the past two decades.
In short, Obama will always do exactly what Israel wants. He will keep the money flowing. He will use the United States's diplomatic stature to prevent Israel from being held accountable by the United Nations and other international bodies. He will veto any call for a Palestinian state.
So, why should Bibi care what he says? It's meaningless, less than a bluff.
As Yglesias says:
It turns out that it’s not true that Israel needs to be willing to make tactical concessions to the Palestinians or even be polite to the White House in order to retain American support. Israel has a basically free hand to behave as it wishes, taking the pieces of the West Bank it wants.
Indeed. We provide the aid, we provide the diplomatic support, we provide all of the benefits in the relationship.
But, if there is a disagreement, it's the United States and its President that get dressed down and humiliated in public for insubordination.
The Middle East peace process is dead. Time to stop throwing good money and diplomatic capital after bad. Not only can we not be an honest broker between Israelis and Palestinians, we can't even be an honest broker between our national interest and that of Israel's.